2.1 Kids: Stable Population
Here's a short & pithy new bit on the little reported population decline. We all know how a healthy marriage culture is neccesary for woman to choose to have multiple children. What is often overlooked is the importance aging demographics and replacment level or sub-replacment level birtrates have on the economy.
[UPDATE]
[UPDATE] Here is a more expansive part of the documentary "demographic winter" that flesh's out and explains many points brought up in the comments...It is the largest section of this film availiable on-line, & will be of interest to many posters who may not have seen it.
> "Japan shows what happens when a country begins losing its ultimate resource (children). The country’s economic misfortunes, which began in the early 1990s after decades of post–World War II growth and have persisted with little relief, often get blamed on the bursting of the country’s real-estate bubble,"
City Journal - Steven Malanga Our Vanishing Ultimate Resource Plummeting birthrates threaten prosperity worldwide. Can America buck the trend?
That real estate bubble burst for the same reason it has (now) burst in the U.S. - a primary reason, not enough younger buyers for all the McMansions the Baby Boomers bought and now need to sell for their retirement.Economics aside: It certainly gives renewed saliancy to the Supreme Court precedent of...
Skinner V Oklahoma & Loving v Virginia “Marriage and procreation are fundamental to the very existence and survival of the race.”
Then again, if you consider the consequences of peak oil, overpopulation, & global climate change, maybe a reduction in the birth rate & the mild economic consequences of that isn't so bad. Certainly there are enough people living now; reducing the birth rate may be no more than simple survival.
ReplyDeleteJust another example of the ideas that seem to re-enforce each other.
ReplyDeleteMarriage, because children are important to our survival.
vs.
Neutered Marriage, because the world is already overpopulated.
Lol! don't overestimate the power of the gay revolution, onlawn. Gay marriage is definitely the exeption in our country, yet birthrates still fall. Meanwhile high rates in poor countries threaten mass starvation & massive environmental destruction. Butdon't despair - lots of dark-skinned folks are moving here & having kids. We're in no danger of underpopulation, and whites will soon be a minority!
ReplyDeleteSeda - With all due respect you seem uneducated in the scope of this problem.
ReplyDeleteIt is not "mild economic consequences" but massive problems. The most pedestrian of those are the ratio of workers to retiree's that is on everyones radar. This is at root a demographic problem.
The problem compounds itself as well; more retiree's for lesser workers means massive tax increases or benifit cuts. Either way this puts presssure on younger workers to pay alot more. This in turn puts pressure to have less kids.
What I am describing is called a "death spiral"
This is the stealth reason most European countires have not embraced same-sex "marriage". The French have written an parlimentary report outlining the importance of maintaining a healthy marriage culture.
Yes, same-sex "marriage" is not by any means the chief culprit. It is both cause & effect of a culture that dosent respect the family and childbearing. Changing the definition of marriage is symptom of a culture that cannot come to grips with the basics of survival.
For instance - Germans population rate is 1.3
ReplyDelete"The fall in the (German) population can no longer be stopped. Its downward spiral is no longer reversible. It will be a Muslim State by the year 2050"
German Fedreral Statistics Office.
Nihilism is as Nihilism does.
ReplyDeleteLOL! With all due respect, Fitz, you seem uneducated on the scope of this problem. "Mild" is a relative term. And when the exponential effects of Peak Oil and global climate change kick in, all the stuff you describe will seen to be mild indeed. http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ for starters - there's lots more. Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteCity Journal Has a "clasic" aricle by James Q. Wilson..
ReplyDelete"Why We Don’t Marry"
http://www.city-journal.org/html/12_1_why_we.html
Seda - I am talking about real demographics that are not argued by serious people. Real precedent like Japan's lost decade & housing booms and the like.
ReplyDeleteYou are speculating on the long standing enviromentalist Apocalypse.
You should be happy to know that the world leaders met to discuss your problem in Coppenhagen.
The very real Birth dirth in Europe however does not get such attention.
No one is arguing that overpopulation is driving global warming. Rather it is carbon emisions.
The idea that global warming & peak oil are arguments against preserving marriage or promoting childbearing amoung woman who want marriage & children but are not realizing that dream is really rather silly.
"Yes, same-sex "marriage" is not by any means the chief culprit. It is both cause & effect of a culture that dosent respect the family and childbearing."
ReplyDeleteRight. It is the same kind of thinking that has separated childrearing and marriage that has allowed so many people to be duped into thinking there could be such a thing as brideless or groomless marriage.
P.W.
ReplyDeleteThanks for noticing...as we all know it takes a culture to preserve the family...& the family then goes on to raise it's children.
This is easily (and often) demagauged because it implicates such abraod swath of society and requires willing sacrifice.
The goverment cant force people to reponsibley procreate...it can only encourage and clearly define what that is...(i.e. marriage)
It is up to us to cut through the clutter and the obfuscation and show people what is truly at stake.
Fitz,
ReplyDeleteI find it humorous that y'all knock Miles for not reading the link until after he posts, but then you don't read it here. Hey, at least he did read it! Peak oil is a matter of physics, not speculation. Just ask Dick Cheney!
Peak oil also has nothing to do with gay marriage, as far as I can see. I don't know why you made that connection, maybe just your obsession with it. You're right, though, trying to justify gay marriage with peak oil is just silly. It doesn't even make sense.
"Peak oil also has nothing to do with gay marriage"
ReplyDeleteAgreed - thats why it was silly for you to bring it up.
GAy "marriage" however has everything to do with marriage and that everything to do with demographics...
Which is the topic of this post.
You'd think that if the world were overpopulated, there'd be some sign of it somewhere. But from where I sit, I see people living longer, healthier, more prosperous and more educated lives, across the globe. Every generation has surpassed the previous one in every measure of health, wealth, and happiness, and I see no sign of that stopping now -- despite 50 years of incessant doomsday preaching from the Nihilists.
ReplyDeleteIf THIS the result of overpopulation, i say bring it on!
Fitz,
ReplyDeleteGiven that my comment on Peak Oil was directly related and in response to the topic of the post as written, and that you're the one who brought up gay marriage - which is not even alluded to in the post, except perhaps by implication - I find your last post pretty amusing.
I can understand why y'all don't read the link I posted, though. It's long, complicated, and pretty scary.
If children are the "ultimate resource," and if every generation has a responsibility to produce more children than the last, in order to prop up the economy and create enough consumers to, for example, purchase the homes of retirees, then is it fair to call that the ultimate pyramid scheme?
ReplyDeleteThat's the way I used to look at it Phil. Back when I was 15.
ReplyDeleteThat's the way I used to look at it Phil. Back when I was 15.
ReplyDeleteAnd then you matured, and became an Amway salesperson?